My 2024 Olympic Trials Marathon Predictions

It’s time to share my picks! It was even tougher than I imagined as there are probably 8-10 contenders for just 3 spots on the Olympic team, and marathons can be so unpredictable. Plus as a fan of these runners as people, I want them all to accomplish their Olympic dreams! *Sob*

Alas, I did manage to submit my picks, so here they are:

Women’s Race

(I did update this list after Molly Seidel announced she wasn’t running Thursday morning.)

1. Emily Sisson

As the reigning American record holder and previous record holder in the half marathon, this is Emily’s race to lose. I can’t imagine anyone thinking they can run away from her by setting a quick pace from the beginning. Also, I will never forget how she absolutely dominated the 10,000 meter Trials after dropping out of the 2020 Marathon Trials. She wants redemption in the Marathon, and see her getting it.

2. Betsy Saina

Betsy almost shares being the race favorite with Emily Sisson. I loved hearing her excitement for being able to compete for the United States now in a recent interview, and she’s coming into the Trials with the third fastest time.

3. Keira D’Amato

The former (and a recent former!) American record holder who is quite fit according to her publicly shared Strava. I’m a huge fan of Keira and will be thrilled if she makes the team!

4. Sara Hall

This is Sara’s 6th trials (8th counting all events separately) between track and the marathon! It would be amazing for her to finally make an Olympic team. Plus she had a great showing at the 2022 World Championships.

5. Jenny Simpson

You’ve gotta pick a debut marathoner sometime, and there’s no one debuting I’d rather bet on than Jenny Simpson.

6. Fiona O’Keefe

Another marathon debut who is coached by Amy Cragg. And her qualifying half time is sub-70!

Honorable Mentions

There are way too many talented athletes to only mention 6! So some additional notes:

  • Des Linden. If Des is in contention at 20 miles, everyone around her should be worried.
  • Aliphine Tuliamuk. The 2020 champ has been dealing with a hamstring injury but is obviously still a threat.
  • Sara Vaughn. Part of the #strongmoms crew with the 6th fastest time coming into the race – set just a few months ago in Chicago.
  • Molly Seidel. She dropped out due to injury, but I love what I wrote about her in my original post, so moving it here. “SEIDEL LIKE TITLE AND DON’T YOU FORGET IT!” – me tweeting as Molly won a bronze medal in the Tokyo Olympic Marathon (while sobbing). Molly is a competitor who excels in championship-style races, and she just ran a new PR in Chicago.

Men’s Race

1. Conner Mantz

Conner deserves a spot on the team for leading the charge that unlocked 2 of the Olympic Team spots for American men.

2. Scott Fauble

There nothing more fun than watching Scott Fauble’s consistency eat up a bunch of runners over the final miles of the Boston Marathon. Scott is going for the win, not just to make the team, and I’m rooting for him!

3. CJ Albertson

I can’t wait to see what CJ does from the gun in Orlando. From his eccentric training methods to his gutsy race plans, I want him to see a payoff of making the Olympic team. (assuming, you know, that the third spot gets to go)

4. Zachery Panning

The Hansons-Brooks group produces good marathoners, so I think Panning is one to watch!

5. Clayton Young

It feels illogical to not have Conner Mantz’s training partner on the Olympic team, but what am I supposed to do with only 3 spots?!

6. Paul Chelimo

Throwing a wildcard debut pick in here for fun. I can still remember watching Chelimo get his silver medal in the 5000 in 2016, and I’m interested to see what he does on Saturday!

Honorable Mentions

  • Galen Rupp. Lol I forgot Galen – whoops. He’s typically someone you don’t bet against, but he didn’t have the best showing in the Houston half, and he didn’t hang on to get the standard in Chicago, so maybe he won’t make the team this time?
  • There are more, but I honestly don’t follow many male runners, so I have less to say about the men’s race.

There you have it! There’s still time to enter your picks for a chance to win a $25 Amazon gift card. Enter here!

2024 Olympic Trials Marathon Prediction Contest

One week from today, the best marathoners in the country will take to the streets of Orlando to compete for a spot on the Olympic Team for the marathon!

I love that the U.S. has a race rather than a selection committee and can’t wait to see who makes the team. And just like in 2020, I’m hosting a prediction contest! I changed up some of the scoring and added a handful of new bonus categories, so hopefully no one will end up with a zero score this year. 😉

Anything can happen in a marathon, which means you can know diddly about running and still submit an entry that beats a hardcore fan like me.

Here is some info to help you make your picks:

I promise I’ll publish my picks before Friday, even though it will pain me to narrow down the women’s field to only 6.

Submit your predictions here: